Research Series
Whale Intelligence Library
A structured collection of research on whale timing, market mechanics, and strategy design.
Updated weeklyCurated by SightWhale Research
Signal Timing & Decay
How fast whale signals decay and when they are still actionable.
What Is a Trading Signal in Polymarket?Signal Half-Life in Prediction Markets: How Long Does Whale Alpha Last?Alert Calibration: Choosing Thresholds That Don’t Overfit (A Backtesting Playbook)The Signal Half-Life: Why Following Whales Too Late is a Losing Strategy
4 articles
Market Microstructure
Volume vs conviction, liquidity dynamics, and how price reacts to whales.
How to Build an Edge in Prediction Markets (Polymarket)Can You Make Money Consistently in Prediction Markets?How Do Whales Make Decisions on Polymarket?How to Build Your Own Prediction Model for Polymarket (Beginner)
4 articles
Risk & Portfolio
Position sizing, portfolio construction, and strategy risk controls.
Can You Make Money Consistently in Prediction Markets?How to Build Your Own Prediction Model for Polymarket (Beginner)Is Polymarket Viable for Long-Term Trading?What Is Alpha in Prediction Markets? (Polymarket Guide)
4 articles
Whale Behavior
How top wallets behave across categories and market conditions.
How to Build an Edge in Prediction Markets (Polymarket)Can You Make Money Consistently in Prediction Markets?How Do Whales Make Decisions on Polymarket?How to Build Your Own Prediction Model for Polymarket (Beginner)
4 articles
Latest research
View all postsMar 23, 2026
How to Build an Edge in Prediction Markets (Polymarket)
Actionable, structured guide to building an edge in prediction markets (Polymarket). Learn edge types (information, execution, tools), why most traders fail, a Whale consistency example, and how to measure ROI with Smart Money context.
Mar 23, 2026
Can You Make Money Consistently in Prediction Markets?
A balanced, data-minded take on consistent profits in prediction markets and on Polymarket-style venues: what “edge” requires, how Smart Money and Whale signals help (and fail), tooling, and FAQ.
Mar 23, 2026
How Do Whales Make Decisions on Polymarket?
An analytical, structured look at how large Polymarket traders typically decide: decision frameworks, data sources, entry timing, a practical flow example, SightWhale tools, pitfalls, and FAQ.
Mar 23, 2026
How to Build Your Own Prediction Model for Polymarket (Beginner)
Beginner-friendly, actionable guide to building a prediction model for Polymarket: define the target, collect data, engineer features, choose a baseline, validate with backtesting, calibrate probabilities, and manage risks. Includes Whale and Smart Money as context—no guarantees.
Mar 23, 2026
How to Identify Smart Money in Prediction Markets
A data-oriented guide to spotting Smart Money on Polymarket and similar markets: metrics that matter, behavioral tells, a Whale-flow case pattern, SightWhale tooling, pitfalls, and FAQ.
Mar 23, 2026
How to Read Polymarket Markets Effectively (Beginner Guide)
A beginner guide to reading Polymarket markets effectively: probability from prices, volume/liquidity indicators, Whale and Smart Money context, a practical step-by-step example, and risk-aware limitations.
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